The Tennessee Hospital Association (THA) has released a new physician workforce study that highlights significant and growing challenges for Tennessee’s healthcare system over the next decade.
The study, conducted by Veritas Health Solutions, analyzes physician supply, demand, and education capacity across the state through 2035. The results show Tennessee is already experiencing a physician shortage, with about 18,800 physicians practicing statewide – about 13 percent below the national per capita average.
By 2035, projections indicate Tennessee will have a shortage of nearly 3,900 physicians. This growing deficit stems from population growth, an aging physician workforce, and increasing demand for care from an aging population. Psychiatry, emergency medicine, and primary care specialties such as family medicine and pediatrics will be most affected by these shortfalls.
One of the most pressing findings highlights a widening gap between medical school graduates and available residency training positions. Today, Tennessee has slightly fewer residency slots than graduating medical students, a gap that is expected to grow substantially over the next 10 years, with graduating medical students outnumbering available in-state residency slots by more than 2:1.
“This allows us to put clear numbers and data behind what hospitals across Tennessee are experiencing every day, persistent physician workforce shortages across primary care and many specialties,” said Dr. Wendy Long, president and chief executive officer of the Tennessee Hospital Association. “While many institutions in Tennessee have made significant investments in medical education, we must address the growing gap between medical school graduates and available residency positions. It is encouraging that Tennessee’s Rural Health Transformation Fund application prioritizes expanding residency opportunities as part of its workforce strategy.”
In addition to the written report, Veritas Health Solutions developed interactive dashboards that allow users to explore county-level physician supply and demand data by specialty, along with population health indicators that influence future workforce needs.
THA commissioned the study in collaboration with its nonprofit affiliate, the Tennessee Center for Health Workforce Development (TCWD), and funded it with a grant from the State of Tennessee. This report follows THA’s 2022 workforce study, which projected a shortfall of 8,500 registered nurses by 2035.
Addressing Tennessee’s healthcare workforce shortage remains a top priority for THA and TCWD, which support and implement programs to recruit, train, and retain hospital and healthcare workers across the state.
Click to review the complete physician workforce study, its interactive dashboards, and the supplemental data appendix.